A royalty adjustment in the budget. A new license condition from the regulator. An export rule announced at short notice. Any one of these can change a mining project’s economics overnight. In Zambia, where mining anchors the economy and the legal framework has just been rebuilt, policy change is a planning assumption, not a remote risk.
Why policy risk matters
Mining is capital-intensive and long-term. A mine may take years to build and decades to pay back, while governments set policy in budget cycles and election cycles. That mismatch cannot be removed entirely.
Zambia’s regime has also shifted recently. The Minerals Regulation Commission Act, 2024 replaced the Mines and Minerals Development Act, 2015, created a single regulator, and retained the Mining Appeals Tribunal. Transition rules, new eligibility criteria and stronger local content and compliance expectations mean companies must keep reassessing their position.
You cannot prevent policy change, but you can limit its impact.
Practical protections
1. Negotiate fiscal certainty where it is available
Where the law or a negotiated agreement allows, seek stabilisation or fiscal-certainty terms that fix key tax and royalty terms for a defined period. The scope, duration and enforceability of these clauses decide their value, so they need careful drafting.
2. Audit your licenses and compliance
Regulators scrutinise non-compliant companies first. Review every license, permit and condition, and confirm that returns, reports and local content filings are current. Clean records are your first defence in any dispute.
3. Review contracts for change-in-law provisions
Check your offtake, financing, supply and contractor agreements for change-in-law, force majeure and renegotiation clauses. These decide who carries the cost when policy shifts, and many companies find gaps only after the change has taken effect.
4. Structure investments with treaty protection in mind
Depending on where your investing entity is incorporated, a bilateral investment treaty may protect you against unfair treatment or expropriation. Structuring decisions made at the outset are far harder to change once a dispute has arisen.
5. Engage regulators and consultation processes
Participate in public consultations, make written submissions and work through industry bodies. Regulators draft more carefully when they hear early, evidence-based commercial concerns, and proposals often change as a result.
6. Plan for disputes before they arise
Know your options before you need them: negotiation, arbitration where your agreements provide for it, appeals to the Mining Appeals Tribunal, and judicial review of administrative decisions. Each has its own deadlines and procedures, and missing them can forfeit your rights.
Review your position before policy moves
The best time to test your legal protections is before a policy change takes effect, not after. A short review of your licenses, key contracts and corporate structure can reveal exposure while you still have room to act.
This article is for general information only and does not constitute legal advice.